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Election 2012 – 11/2
This is my site Written by Jeff on November 3, 2012 – 12:14 am

Little has changed since my last post.  Since I began pooling polls of the states about two weeks ago, I have added about 250,000 likely voters and little has changed.  I suspect that fluctuations in enthusiasm have settled down since the third presidential debate resulting in little change.

At the alpha = 0.01 level of significance, only Florida is undecided (Table 1).  Figure 1 illustrates the gradual convergence of the percentile difference between Obama and Romney in Florida.  The next two closest states are Colorado and North Carolina (Figures 2 and 3).  Both are statistically significant for Obama and Romney respectively, but one or a few polls could make them insignificant.

State Polls 11-2-12

Figure 1. Percentage difference between Obama and Romney for Florida with 99% confidence intervals.

Figure 2. Percentage difference between Obama and Romney for Colorado with 99% confidence intervals.

Figure 3. Percentage difference between Obama and Romney for North Carolina with 99% confidence intervals.

Ohio has been holding steady at about 3% for the last couple of weeks with numerous polls (Figure 4).  Ohio also looks the closest to a bellwether state for this election since the predicted difference as of today is 3% for Obama.  The predicted national vote difference stands at 3.1%.

Figure 4. Percentage difference between Obama and Romney for Ohio with 99% confidence intervals.

As of today, the predicted electoral vote outcome is 303 for Obama and 206 for Romney with 29 electoral votes to be decided.

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