Little has changed since my last post. Since I began pooling polls of the states about two weeks ago, I have added about 250,000 likely voters and little has changed. I suspect that fluctuations in enthusiasm have settled down since the third presidential debate resulting in little change.
At the alpha = 0.01 level of significance, only Florida is undecided (Table 1). Figure 1 illustrates the gradual convergence of the percentile difference between Obama and Romney in Florida. The next two closest states are Colorado and North Carolina (Figures 2 and 3). Both are statistically significant for Obama and Romney respectively, but one or a few polls could make them insignificant.
Ohio has been holding steady at about 3% for the last couple of weeks with numerous polls (Figure 4). Ohio also looks the closest to a bellwether state for this election since the predicted difference as of today is 3% for Obama. The predicted national vote difference stands at 3.1%.
As of today, the predicted electoral vote outcome is 303 for Obama and 206 for Romney with 29 electoral votes to be decided.